ipcc scenarios a1, a2, b1, b2

Some of the scenarios described in that volume have been used in the climate model simulations assessed in both the IPCC 2001 and 2007 reports. Comments on final draft (IPCC, 2000d): Saudi Arabia states that it is unacceptable that the text seeks to give status to the three subgroups in the A1 family (A1C, A1G, and A1T) that is equal to the four marker scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2). Global and annual averages of the surface air temperature increase for all scenarios because of the dominance of the radiative forcing of the increased CO2. These four families are known as ‘A1’, ‘A2’, ‘B1’ and ‘B2’. In addition, the four scenario groups within the A1 family A1B, A1C, A1G, and A1T, which explore different technological developments in the energy systems, are shaded individually. Estimated total indirect radiative forcing is about –1.3 Wm–2 for the A1, B1, and B2 scenarios, and is about –2.0 Wm–2 for the A2 scenario in the latter half of the 21st century. Each storyline projects numbers for fertility, mortality, and migration rates from 2010 through 2100, drawn from US Census Bureau data and projections. This study describes four food scenarios: the Affluent World (A1), the Full World (A2), the Vegetarian World (B1) and the Low-Input World (B2). Four scenario families comprise the SRES scenario set: A1, A2, B1, and B2. The spatial distribution for A1/B1 and A2/B2 scenarios is distinct, with the global scenarios A1/B1 showing greater growth of inter-regional demand compared with the more regionally focused scenarios A2/B2. They are grouped by shaded areas for the scenario families A1B, A2, B1, and B2 with respective markers shown as lines. The following image illustrates the grid we will use to summarize the assumptions and parameters. Why new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios? Illustrative scenario: A scenario that is illustrative for each of the six scenario groups reflected in the Summary for Policymakers of Nakicenovic and Swart (2000). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed long-term emissions scenarios in 1990 and 1992. In addition, the four scenario groups within the A1 family, A1, A1C, A1G, and A1T, that explore different technological developments in the energy systems, are shaded individually. The A1 family is further subdivided into three groups (A1FI, A1T and A1B), so there are in total six scenario groups, for which so-called ‘illustrative’ emissions scenarios were developed by IPCC Working Group III in 2000. They are grouped by shaded areas for the scenario families A1, A2, B1, and B2 with respective markers shown as lines. In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), describing four scenario families to describe a range of possible future conditions. The SRES scenarios are named by family (A1, A2, B1, and B2), where each family is designed around a set of consistent assumptions: for example, a world that is more integrated or WGIII. These scenarios have been widely used in the analysis of possible climate change, its impacts, and options to mitigate climate change. Two families of scenarios are commonly used for future climate projections: the 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES, left) and the 2010 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, right). The design was based on the scenarios developed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) ( Nakicenovik et al., 2000 ). These make up four storylines: A1, A2, B1, and B2.

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